Guy keeling, makes sense. Perhaps point 4 "the Boers lose conventional war"is superfluous as that was just the conclusion of the previous point "The second British offensive - successful."
Food for thought 1: Some Boer publications argue that the Second Boer War started with Jameson's invasion in December 1895/January 1896.
Food for thought 2: One often overlooked strategy applied to satisfy territorial ambitions is loading the coveted territory with citizens of your country and then take control of said territory by insisting on "fair democratic representation." Although the mass settling of Uitlanders in the Transvaal was a gold pull rather than a government push, Britain has been quite an enthusiastic user of that strategy (e.g. Falklands).